Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1070.023497 1233.619663 1423.584597 1662.858057 1959.621462 2320.233156 2.798880e+03
2024-10-06 848.932972 1054.579368 1319.813389 1696.231476 2232.836544 2997.636144 4.225736e+03
2024-10-13 715.076002 925.358686 1213.016276 1650.915261 2331.473331 3409.269353 5.392921e+03
2024-10-20 626.563434 837.146235 1138.997292 1625.681332 2439.734327 3856.032357 6.823842e+03
2024-10-27 550.885198 753.634673 1054.605531 1561.751081 2460.835158 4151.072036 8.117975e+03
2024-11-03 518.123511 727.380024 1050.269424 1622.199512 2707.271831 4948.175147 1.103572e+04
2024-11-10 486.593359 698.234043 1035.804789 1660.461558 2920.351037 5763.010779 1.471358e+04
2024-11-17 460.536783 674.135988 1025.362197 1702.488062 3151.214287 6723.820232 1.991695e+04
2024-11-24 426.476696 633.229363 980.740355 1671.150672 3215.229873 7295.982833 2.450974e+04
2024-12-01 405.571846 611.873536 967.324024 1698.274396 3420.193943 8370.199390 3.320851e+04
2024-12-08 389.793056 597.483705 964.335786 1745.742082 3689.307612 9812.303103 4.758485e+04
2024-12-15 370.036320 574.286998 942.195238 1748.201019 3844.045874 10981.502751 6.436995e+04
2024-12-22 347.007329 545.230125 909.336721 1730.069648 3964.614210 12238.031466 8.997101e+04
2024-12-29 332.607118 530.712376 903.667813 1775.498077 4296.336861 14761.922037 1.552331e+05
2025-01-05 310.425024 499.778193 861.433688 1725.323032 4316.175996 15882.491944 2.172688e+05
2025-01-12 292.807459 475.889850 830.950258 1698.944864 4407.866074 17534.390887 3.371485e+05
2025-01-19 273.242220 446.840908 786.899381 1631.056118 4337.064526 18217.111767 4.590172e+05
2025-01-26 266.691728 442.055940 793.224232 1695.186549 4767.627608 22803.481661 1.279501e+06
2025-02-02 258.650521 433.676671 790.841284 1735.791815 5134.052761 27803.622499 4.739917e+06
2025-02-09 251.442127 426.329080 789.866920 1780.418893 5545.084289 34388.729260 5.396834e+07
2025-02-16 239.399169 408.443307 763.487606 1747.140512 5606.718720 37770.716371 2.740537e+09
2025-02-23 232.359124 400.182147 758.244375 1775.943389 5973.337912 46139.813178 NaN
2025-03-02 227.079150 395.118534 759.864940 1826.372874 6481.639931 59202.060575 NaN